下垫面对WRF模式模拟黑河流域区域气候精度影响研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

潘小多  李新  冉有华  刘超 《高原气象》2012,31(3):657-667

利用高精度的土地覆盖、土壤质地类型和地形高度值替换了天气研究和预报模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)中的相关数据,通过数值模式试验检验了下垫面数据对WRF模拟精度的影响。同时,通过与黑河综合遥感联合试验中7个测站观测数据的比较,以平均误差、均方根误差和相关系数为指标,分析了WRF模式下垫面数据改变对近地表气象要素的模拟精度的影响。结果表明:(1)WRF模式本身的地形高度信息在黑河流域上游地区有较大误差,造成了一定的模拟误差。而使用高精度的下垫面数据可以提高WRF模式在黑河流域上游复杂区域的模拟能力;(2)2m气温除了随地形高度递减外,还受土壤质地和土地覆盖小幅度影响,而且进行地形订正后的2m气温与2m湿度的模拟在下垫面为水体的区域对比强烈,因此为模式提供准确的水体分布信息也至关重要;(3)2m气温和湿度等要素的模拟差异值与地形高度资料的差异呈负相关,而降雨量的差异与地形高度差异呈微弱的正相关,与土壤质地差异和土地覆盖差异的相关性也比较弱。  相似文献   

黄河流域冬、夏季水汽输送及收支特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李进  李栋梁  张杰 《高原气象》2012,31(2):342-350

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和我国实测雨量资料,对黄河流域1月和7月多年平均及旱、涝年整层积分的水汽通量、辐合(辐散)及各分区水汽收支进行了研究。结果表明,1月黄河流域无明显的水汽输送,而7月水汽沿西南、东南及西北3条路径输送,前两支气流在多年平均时主要影响黄河下游区。涝年时影响到黄河中、下游区,而上游区水汽流入较小;旱年,黄河中、上游区均无明显的水汽输送,只有下游的小范围地区受西南气流影响。各区净水汽通量分别与其地面降水的时空演变相对应,而经向净水汽通量是影响水汽收支变化及供给流域降水的主要水汽来源;涝年的水汽净收支与各边界水汽流入明显大于旱年。1月,西边界和北边界微弱的水汽输入远小于东边界和南边界的输出,各区均为水汽净辐散,不利于降水;7月,大量的水汽主要来自西边界和南边界,涝年各区均为水汽盈余,多年平均也以净辐合为主,而旱年则以水汽亏损为主。  相似文献   

珠江三角洲地区城中村土地供求的动态均衡分析     

魏开  许学强 《热带地理》2012,32(4):416-422

土地问题是我国城中村研究的核心问题。在对珠江三角洲地区城中村进行实地调研的基础上,就城中村主体的行为特征、城中村土地供应和需求的基本特征进行了总结。以理论推导与现实印证相结合的方法,基于经济学中的供求理论,对城中村土地供求变化进行了动态均衡分析。从村庄"内部人"的视角,考察在各种内外部因素变动(征地与留用地,城中村改造,村民城市化转型)的情况下,城中村主体如何实现土地的供应和需求均衡。总体上,城中村土地变化表现为土地需求被动地追随(因征地而发生的)供应减少而下降,以实现供求均衡。具体而言,在城中村形成阶段,供求均衡借助乡村工业化,即农业用地转为工业用地而实现;在城中村存续阶段,存在土地供求的逐渐失衡;在城中村改造阶段,供求均衡最终必须通过城市化,即村民转为市民而实现。  相似文献   

鄂陵湖湖滨地区夏季近地层微气象特征与碳通量变化分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李照国  吕世华  奥银焕  王少影 《地理科学进展》2012,31(5):602-608

利用2010年夏季鄂陵湖湖滨地区试验观测资料,从中选取资料较好的5个连续晴天,分析了该地区高寒草甸夏季局地气候、辐射与能量平衡特征以及碳通量的日变化。结果表明：①夏季晴天湖滨地区近地层气象要素受到湖陆风的较大影响,风向昼夜交替变化,垂直风速和摩擦速度明显大于玛曲草原,全天盛行上升气流,昼夜温差较小;②湖滨地区日均太阳总辐射与净辐射高于玛曲草原和金塔绿洲,地表能量不平衡现象较显著,湍流输送以潜热为主,夜间近地层存在明显的逆温和逆湿现象;③夏季湖滨草甸碳吸收的日最大值出现在上午11时前后,碳吸收显著大于碳排放,其水分利用效率与海北草甸生态系统接近,总体偏低。  相似文献   

近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征(英文)     

夏军  佘敦先  张永勇  杜鸿 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(2):195-208

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Generalized Pareto distribution (GP) and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.  相似文献   

澜沧江流域农业灌溉需水的时空变化(英文)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾世祥  何大明  崔远来  李远华 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(3):441-450

Based on the data of eight meteorological stations from the 1950s to 2007, current cropping patterns, field water moisture management, we use the Mann-Kendall and the Re-scaled Range Analysis methods to research the changes of humidity and crop irrigation water requirements in the Lancang River Basin. The results show that the annual and dry season average temperatures significantly increased, and the dry season rainfall increased while wet season rainfall decreased. Evaportranspiration (ET0) increased during both dry and wet seasons at all stations except Dali, Jianchuan and Gengma, and the aridity-humidity index decreased at most of the stations. The turning points of weather factors, ET0, the arid-ity-humidity index, paddy irrigation requirements and total agricultural water requirements occurred from the 1960s to the 1990s. The spatial changing tendency of paddy irrigation quota increased with the increase of altitude and latitude, and the correlation coefficients are 0.513 and 0.610, respectively. The maximum value is observed in Weixi, while the minimum in Mengla.  相似文献   

近半个世纪来气候变暖背景下黄河流域潜在蒸散量的变化(英文)     

马雪宁  张明军  李亚举  王圣杰  马潜  刘文莉 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(6):977-988

According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of "Evaporation paradox" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.  相似文献   

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)     

张向萍  叶瑜  方修琦 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(5):810-824

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.  相似文献   

塔里木河流域人口-经济分布不均衡特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

肖艳秋  杨德刚  唐宏  张新焕 《干旱区地理》2012,35(2):309-317

 不均衡性是人口与经济分布最基本的属性,不均衡性过大影响区域经济的协调发展。文章利用地理联系率、Pearson相关系数、基尼系数和崔王指数分析了塔里木河流域人口-经济分布不均衡的时间特征;采用重心模型和人均GDP空间分异特征探讨了人口-经济分布不均衡的空间格局。结果表明：（1）改革开放以来,塔河流域的人口、经济分布匹配程度不断减弱,不均衡特征逐渐显著,区域经济差异已超出警戒线的范围。（2）在空间格局上,经济重心显著向东北方向集中,人口重心基本不变;人口、经济重心转移使和田、喀什、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州三地州逐渐成为贫困人口集聚区,巴音郭楞蒙古自治州的库尔勒市成为经济极化中心。依据增长极理论,塔河流域经济极化中心较单一,增长体系不完善,未来需培育新的极化中心。  相似文献   

塔里木盆地北缘人口与经济重心演变及其关联分析          下载免费PDF全文

汪洋  陈亚宁  陈忠升 《干旱区地理》2012,35(2):318-323

 以塔里木盆地北缘为研究靶区,利用区域重心概念及其模型,分析了过去45 a（1965-2009年）塔里木盆地北缘人口、GDP、第一产业、第二产和耕地重心演变过程,并借助相关性分析探讨了人口与GDP、第一产业、第二产业及耕地重心演变的关联性。结果表明：（1）在过去的45 a,塔里木盆地北缘人口重心、经济重心均呈现出由西向东方向迁移的趋势。GDP、第一产业、第二产业发展对人口分布起到了决定性的导向作用。而人口分布差异引起了耕地面积的变化。（2）人口与GDP、第一产业、第二产业经向迁移相关性较强,纬向上相关性不显著。（3）过去的45 a,GDP、第二产业与人口分布的不均衡性加剧,第一产业重心相对人口重心偏移距离变化较为复杂,但二者仍存在较大的不均衡性;耕地面积与人口分布的不均衡性日益变小。表明该区域的经济发展与人口分布整体协调性较差。研究成果可为研究区社会经济发展规划提供科学依据。  相似文献